The Life & Peace Institute (LPI) is an international and ecumenical center that supports and promotes nonviolent approaches to conflict transformation through a combination of research and action that entails the strengthening of existing local capacities and enhancing the preconditions for building peace.

Introduction

In recent years, the complex relationship between climate change, peace, and security has garnered increasing attention. A particular emphasis has been placed on the urgent need to better understand the role of climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’ with the potential to intensify food, water, and energy insecurity while propelling competition over natural resources, exacerbating social inequalities, and driving displacement. While climate change does not necessarily directly cause violent conflict, there is growing evidence that the complex interaction between a changing climate and pre-existing dynamics across social, political, and economic factors intensifies conflict drivers by creating new and exacerbating existing fault lines between and within states and societies.

This complex relationship between climate change and security is compounded by the fact that in settings where violent conflict already exists, climate hazards have often aggravated or prolonged instability, rendering it more difficult to reach and sustain peace. By the same token, violent conflicts have been shown to disrupt and impede climate action, as countries grappling with extreme political instability often have fewer institutional capacities and resources to adapt to climate change. While debates concerning the precise nature and direction of the links between climate change, peace and stability continue to evolve, they have fostered a growing consensus that the sustainability of conflict prevention and peacebuilding programming will hinge on the extent to which it is sensitive to the context-specific impacts of the changing climate.

Climate, Peace and Security in the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa comprises some of the most fragile and conflict-affected countries on the continent. At the same time, the Horn is experiencing an alarming increase in the frequency, severity and concurrence of extreme climatic events, making it one of the most climate-vulnerable regions on the continent. As this suggests, the impact of climate change is not just an ecological challenge in the sub-region – it is increasingly understood as a driving factor in the amplification of existing vulnerabilities, the deepening of social and economic disparities, and the acceleration of displacement.

Faced by the dual challenge of climate vulnerability and political instability, the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD), in partnership with the African Union (AU) and the UN Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, inaugurated the IGAD Climate Security Coordination Mechanism in 2022. Established under the auspices of building a common understanding and unified position on questions of climate security, the Mechanism is an expression of the sub-region’s dedication to establishing a coordinated approach for assessing and managing climate security challenges in the Horn of Africa.

One such coping mechanism for communities that experience combinations of climatic and environmental changes and conflict, is migration. Mixed migration drivers, including climate and conflict, are pushing internal migration within countries in the Horn and, in some cases, intra-regional migration. Migration to ‘second’ cities such as Kisumu and Baidoa is increasing and is expected to continue. Urban migration has spurred concerns about urban conflict, social cohesion, and urban access to resources. In addition, urban migration creates unique links to rural areas that have both peace and conflict implications through socio-economic means. Based on predictions of continued urban migration in the region due, in part, to conflict and climatic conditions, understanding the peace and security dynamics is essential to providing relevant and reliable policy and programming.

This research initiative will take place under the Life & Peace Institute’s Horn of Africa Regional Programme and contribute to knowledge and understanding of peace and security dynamics associated with urban migration in a minimum of two selected locations (with cross-border influences) in the Horn of Africa. 

Purpose

The purpose of this consultancy is to lead on research activities and the development of analysis that will form the basis of the project’s key outputs. The Consultant will work closely with the LPI team and any other external experts engaged in the project.

Objective

The research project will examine peace and security dynamics associated with climate-related urban migration at two sites (Baidoa, Somalia, and Kisumu, Kenya).[1] The research project is being conducted with regular co-creation opportunities with community and policy leaders on topics of migration, conflict, peace, climate, environment, and urbanization. Ultimately, the specific question that will be researched will be identified through this co-creation consultation process. However, some key guiding questions that have already been identified include:

1.       How does urban migration affect existing and new inter-community relationships? (From perspectives of host and in-migrant, positive and negative, Identity and ethnicity, Power dynamics e.g. politics)

2.       How does urban migration change the nature of migrant relationships with those in the rural areas from where they came? (e.g., livelihoods, identity, power dynamics)

3.       How do security dynamics change in both urban and rural environments as a result of climate change urban migration?

4.       What lessons can be learnt for future policy-making and programs supporting peacebuilding and improved human security in urban and rural environments?             

Approach and methodology

This study is expected to build on existing literature and theories on climate migration and urbanisation, while also engaging with available data sources. Therefore, desk-based research will provide a foundation and contribute to the ultimate research question, methodology, and final products. The methodology will be developed in collaboration with the Life & Peace Institute team and select external advisors following agreement on a research question. The Consultant should expect to be required to work with community partners and local researchers to implement the methodology via in-person visits to the research locations. All activity and reporting under this study must be conflict and gender sensitive.

Responsibilities

The Consultant will be responsible for the following anticipated actions:

·       Leading the implementation of the research methodology and the collection of primary data.

·       Supervising the data collection team and ensuring quality assurance of all data collected.

·       Ensuring all data is cleaned and shared in a timely and agreed manner.

·       Updating LPI’s research team up to date with progress, challenges and issues encountered in data collection.

 The Consultant will also contribute to the following:

·       Participation in the relevant ‘co-creation’ roundtables involving policy actors including: the initial roundtable at the end of April, the methodology workshop, and the validation workshop amongst others.

·       Participation in a possible research advisory committee.

·       Development of the research methodology and approach in the co-creation workshop that will define the direction of primary data collection and consultation with key stakeholders.

·       Development of any research tools such as sets of guiding questions, survey questionnaires, and other approaches required to collect primary data.

·       Stakeholder mapping of local organizations and individuals that have played and continue to play a key role in the sector under consideration.

·       Participation and presentation during an analysis workshop organized by the LPI team to elucidate key findings and recommendations from new research developed during this project.

·       Presentation of findings and recommendations to target audiences, as needed.

·       Production of the Final Research Report.

·       Co-drafting of summary policy papers or similar output (expected to be no more than ten content pages) which covers main findings, conclusions, and recommendations from the entire span of the project in a shorter format for target audiences.

·       Participation in project team discussions during the implementation process to assess the validity of the proposed approach and to consider adaptation as appropriate.

Deliverables

The Consultant will be responsible for delivering the following anticipated steps:

·       A literature review summarizing the key findings of the most salient academic and grey literature on urban migration, climate change, and conflict, and outlining key aspects and evidence demonstrating linkages and relationships. Ensure that gender dimensions are also covered.

·       Cleaned and shared primary data as agreed upon and in accordance with the research methodology and research plan.

·       Initial Research Findings report (format to be confirmed) in relation to the research question and literature review based on the primary data.

 

Timeframe

The total number of days for this consultancy is up to 50 between 28 April 2024 – 31 August 2024. An estimated breakdown is provided in the table below. Exact timings and level of effort for specific deliverables will be agreed directly with the LPI project team.

 

Activity	No of days	Expected Completion
Co-creation roundtable	1	3 May 2024
Literature review	10	31 May 2024
Co-creation methodology workshop	1	May 2024
Finalising research design and logistics	3	May 2024
Research implementation	21	15 July 2024
Analysis workshop	2	31 July 2024
Final research report, including revisions and incorporation of feedback	10	31 August 2024
Presentation of findings and dissemination of project outputs including validation workshop	2	31 August 2023